The Money Game

Money is the mother’s milk of politics – the famous phrase shamelessly coined by Jesse Unruh, former California politician and fixer.

And nowhere is this more true than in Orange County, where Supervisorial districts include 600,000 residents and getting people out to vote (for you) requires lots of investment in media of one kind or another. Setting aside independent political action committees, the politician’s own expenditure is critical.

Since our own District 4 Supervisorial job is up for election in 2026 (the senile and corrupt Doug “Bud” Chaffee being termed out) it is timely, on the verge of a primary campaign, to see how much money the various candidates have raised, and how much they have on hand.

The second half of 2025 finance statements for the D4 candidates are now viewable on line. The results of July-December fundraising are interesting.

The big cash leader is Fullerton’s own Mayor, Fred Jung. He raised a whopping $145,000 bucks in the second half of 2025, and had a cash balance of $354,000. He’d have more but spent almost 50K in 2025 mostly on campaign consultants. That’s a lot of money.

Connor Traut the eager office hopper from Buena Park; the carpetbagger who lusts after politcal office, raised $64,000 and has $225,000 in the bank. Of course $100,000 of that was shifted from his existing campaign account, a move he sleazily pretended was a real 24 hour fundraising effort.

Tim Shaw, the only Republican in the race raised $60,000 and has $69,000 on hand.

The final candidate who I am aware of is Rose Espinosa from La Habra. She raised a paltry $14K, but thanks to one of those personal loans politicians make to themselves, in this case $150,000, she’s got a $160,000 total.

The primary election is June 2nd, so a tsunami of political outreach will probably be starting in a month or so. What are the prospects for these free spenders?

Fullerton is in the 4th Supervisorial District, in fact, it is the largest city completely within the boundary of the district. Three of the last four D4 Supervisors have been on the Fullerton City Council. This gives Fred Jung a natural edge over candidates from Fullerton’s much smaller neighbors like Buena Park and La Habra. Jung, however has no help from a political party, if in fact that means much anymore. He is now registered NPP – no political party preference. His record of defying the kooks in Fullerton will help, not hurt him with conservatives and independents.

Connor Traut is the nebbish candidate of the Democrat establishment and has all the usual endorsement from the same people endorsing the thief Paulette Chaffee for NOCCCD board. He has a lot of money on hand, but only 63% of what Jung has stockpiled. Being an elected in Buena Park isn’t much of a help since it is historically apathetic in politics and he moved there just to get into a municipal office.

Tim Shaw, the only Republican running, has zero hope of being elected. He came close seven years ago, but the district has become even more Democrat and less Republican. He is a member of the whackadoodle and opaque OC Board of Education. That will get him some charter school lobby money as a sop. He might do well enough to make a run-off in November by coming in second, but he can’t win in a general election. In 2022 two Democrats made the runoff. Shaw has no path to victory.

Rose Espinoza, another Democrat, has no foreseeable path, either. All the Dems are behind Traut, for what that’s worth, and Espinosa has no name ID outside of small La Habra, where getting elected doesn’t seem all that difficult. Still, as the only woman in the election she’s got that going for her. But she hasn’t raised much money. But she is willing to risk her own dough, apparently, and that says something. Something sort of Paulette Chaffee-esque. She has run for Supervisor two or three time previously way out of the money.

The OC 4th District Supervisor election is likely going to be won in the flatlands of Anaheim where none of the above candidates is very well known. There are lots of Latino voters in these precincts and that might help Espinosa. There could be the better part of 25,000 to 30,000 votes there. Large, but not enough to help an Anaheimer do well. At this late date I can’t think of any who could or would try to run.